There is no catch-all evaluation of current real estate conditions. That is to say, although we hear a lot these days about the “buyers’ market”, it is impossible to utilize one trend as a means of describing an entire national or international market characterized by complex idiosyncrasies. Here is a list of factors which must be considered when attempting to gauge the climate of your market.
The first and most obvious of these parameters is pending home sales, which gives a since of just how much business is being done in a given market. It is not as useful to look at the raw number of sales as it is to look at the changes and trends over the course of the past few years. For example, although it’s a difficult time economically in this country, pending home sales nationally have increased by 17% over the course of the last year (indicating a rise in deals done and the start of a healthy comeback of the real estate industry).
In addition to pending sales, you will want to take into account how many of those sales are new vs. existing homes. This gives a sense of what’s happening in the community—whether or not projects are under way, buildings are being built, communities being developed, etc. Existing home sales are good, but new home sales mean your community is healthy enough to grow.
Inventory is a very important parameter, as it gives the investigator an idea of how many homes are listed for sale (which can be compared to the number of homes sold in the same time period for a sense of market efficacy). A lot can be gleaned simply from studying how many and what types of homes are currently on the market.
The next big feature of the housing market to analyze is interest rates. Although when taken alone, interest rates don’t provide a clear picture of what’s happening in the market, they do give a sense of the affordability of home ownership. When mortgage rates are as low and attractive as they have become over the last few years, buyers have added incentive to pull homes from the overstocked inventory of the buyers’ market.
Finally, no analysis of the real estate market would be complete without including a consideration of the economy in general. In the same area as your real estate market query, you’ll want to know the income level and unemployment rates, as well as any foreclosure statistics. This will give you a good sense of the amount of disposable money available in these communities, and will provide insight into maximizing your opportunities to get a good deal. Low-income combined with debt makes for a very dangerous cocktail, and although it can be a sign that the economy is suffering, such motivated sellers can provide great opportunities for savvy buyers.
Wherever you are looking to invest in real estate, do not be swept up by too many reports of national real estate trends. The fact is, although many of the economic problems currently being faced by this country are ubiquitous, real estate success and failure is a local phenomenon. Just because it’s a slow economy, doesn’t mean it’s not a great time to jump in! And just because everyone is reporting that it’s a buyers’ market, doesn’t mean any deal you find is a good one! Be careful and conscientious, and have an understanding of the statistics and trends pertaining specifically to your local real estate market before making any investment decisions.
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